Thursday, December 10, 2015

WHAT WILL CARLOS GHOSN DO NEXT?

FROM BUSINESS WORLD OF 10 JULY 2006


Management across cultures


A typical car maker makes a model in thousands, and ships them out to dealers; when dealers sell the cars, they send their replacement orders to the manufacturer, together with cheques for the cars sold. Cars flow from the assembly line to the customer, and money from him to the car maker. If there is the slightest interruption in the two flows, the manufacturer can quickly run into trouble. Unless he can marshall the necessary finance, he would go bankrupt. That nearly happened to Maruti under ministers who thought they knew management; luckily the government learnt its lesson in time and left management to Khattar. It happened more recently to Daewoo, whose remains were carved up by General Motors (GM) and Tata Motors.
Now, however, GM, the world’s biggest car company, is in trouble. In 2004 it produced 15 million of the total 60 million vehicles produced across the world. Ford, the next biggest, produced half as many; Toyota was closing in on it. There were three more in the five-million class – DaimlerChryler, Renault-Nissan and Volkswagen. These Big Six accounted for 47 million vehicles; the rest of the industry produced a third as much.
In this industry, technology matters. The biggest innovation in car making since World War II was Toyota’s just-in-time production in the 1960s. Till then, Ford’s philosophy ruled: that the way to make the cheapest car was to produce a single model on a large scale. But an assembly line must never stop; so inventories of components at every point on it had to be sufficient to keep it going. Toyota made its suppliers deliver components just in time to be assembled, and thereby cut down inventory costs. It also trained its workers to carry out a number of operations together, and thereby reduced the boredom of doing the same operation again and again. And it put a tag on monocoques moving along the assembly line which told workers what was to be fitted on them. In this way it made different models on the same assembly line. When the oil crisis struck in the 1970s, Toyota worked on engines and increased their fuel efficiency by about a third. These innovations have now spread across the industry. But Toyota remains the most profitable big car maker in the world.
As Toyota’s star rose, its Japanese twin Nissan’s faded. Both were hit hard by the recession that engulfed the Japanese economy at the end of the 1980s. Toyota innovated its way through; Nissan failed. Renault bought a 37 per cent share in Nissan, and sent Carlos Ghosn to turn it around. Ghosn moved to Japan. He learnt Japanese, but otherwise did very un-Japanese things like selling off Nissan’s aerospace business and retrenching 21000 workers – 15 per cent of its work force. Initially he invited much hostility; but eventually he won respect by his dedication, and earned the sobriquet of Mr 7-to-11, signifying the long hours he worked. He turned Nissan around. Last year he became chief of Renault as well as Nissan.
So when GM ran into losses, Kirk Kirkorian, its biggest shareholder, thought of Ghosn. On his prodding, Rick Wagoner, the chief of GM, also spoke to Ghosn. The two have been negotiating on how their two empires can work together. At the moment, both Renault and Nissan are wary. GM is many times bigger than they; they see no advantage from inviting this camel inside their tent.

So for now there is no chance of a merger between the empires. As long as Rick Wagoner is negotiating for GM, his job is not available to Ghosn. But if GM’s condition worsens, it may become available. Turning around GM is a challenge that could tempt Carlos Ghosn. GM itself estimates that it will have to close a dozen factories and retrench 30,000 workers – a tenth of its labour force – in the next two years; even more drastic measures may be required to make it a success. It is not an assignment for the lily-livered. But what Ghosn achieved in Nissan is so spectacular that GM is perhaps the only challenge that is big enough for him. Will he take it up? I am tempted to think he will.