Friday, March 6, 2015

A GAMBLER IN A JUTE SUIT

[Arun Bajoria owned one-sixth of the jute industries in the 1990s, and was making obscene profits; then he lost his way. He tried to wrest control of Bombay Dyeing from Nasli Wadia and failed. After his only son died, he too died at the relatively early age of 63 in 2008. This columns was written in Business Standard of 24 December 2000.]

Who is afraid of Bajoria?


Arun Bajoria has been making news. He has taken substantial positions in the share capital of Bombay Dyeing and Ballarpur Industries, and is wondering what to do with them. The promoters of the two companies are not prepared to take him on the board of directors. He could sell his holdings to the promoters’ ill-wishers. But unless the holdings were large enough to help in unseating the promoters, their value would not much exceed their market value; and if they were unloaded in the market their value would be much less. Bombay Dyeing has also apparently referred Bajoria’s acquisition of its shares to SEBI, for it is large enough to attract SEBI’s requirement of an open offer.
An open offer would cost Bajoria much more money; and it would not be worth making unless he had a good chance of taking over the companies. Which he does not have seeing the holdings of the promoters and the financial institutions. So why has he been playing this futile game?
It is unwise to try and look inside a rich man’s mind. But an obvious reason is that he had money. It seems that he made it running jute mills in Calcutta. He has run them with great profit, and used his earnings to buy up 15 per cent of jute capacity. Here is a declining industry. The government keeps it alive by forcing various producers to pack their goods in gunny. Carpet backing seemed to be the hope twenty years ago; but its stimulus proved short-lived. Travel goods, curtains and such offbeat items offer niche markets but absorb very little volume. But the fact is, that there is a market, and money can be made in it if someone knows how to cut costs. It is difficult in Calcutta, since the CPM government would beat up anyone who threw his workers out of job. But Bajoria somehow did it. He also tightened up management. And he made money.
He is not the first one who has more money than he knows what to do with. In the early 1990s, the Jains of Jain Irrigation were making a lot of it. They were pioneers in drip irrigation equipment, and money was pouring out of their ears. They looked well set for the next 20 years. I recommended their shares to a friend, and she lost almost all her money. The Jains issued a public apology, but it did not earn my friend anything. They had used their profits unwisely and lost it.
There are other Indians who have made a lot of money. Look at all the infant millionaires in Silicon Valley – Kanwal Rekhi, Sabeer Bhatia, Chandra Shekhar and others. They got rich before they got old enough to need massage. What did they do with their wealth? Of them, I know only Kanwal Rekhi well. He decided that he had made enough to last his lifetime, and so gave up making money. He spends his time teaching other Indians how to succeed, collecting money for Indian Institutes of Technology, funding a libertarian institute, and so on. He is playing venture capitalist to both entrepreneurs and ideologically fired people. I know less about the others, but a number of them are known to be setting up new businesses in information technology. In other words, they are doing more of what they have been proved to be good at.
What would that be for Bajoria? More jute mills are an obvious answer. There is still another 85 per cent of capacity to buy. There is all of Bangladeshi industry. There are possibilities downstream – fashion garments, for instance. But then Bajoria would have thought of these things first, and rejected them for some good reason. Maybe there are no more jute mills on sale; maybe he, like the rest of the world, has come to regard this industry as a hopeless one.
In which case I would have thought first of similar industries: polythene and polystyrene packing, cardboard, wood. That is where his specialist knowledge of jute might be useful. I would have thought of cotton weaving: that is where his knowledge of weaving might help. Or of jute cultivation and preparation. Jute accounts for three-quarters of the cost of gunny; a one per cent fall in its cost is worth three times a one per cent fall in the downstream costs.
Or I would have thought of other half-dead Calcutta industries. Printing, for instance. Calcutta at one time had the best printers in India: their work was clean, accurate, and if properly supervised, beautiful. Right into the 1990s, the Oxford University Press was using certain Calcutta printers for high-value printing. Today that industry is in its death throes; computers and related printers have made typesetting redundant.
In these circumstances, the communists try to halt historical forces: they try to protect the jobs of letterpress printers. That is silly. They will still be competed out of existence by computer operators elsewhere in India. Jyoti Basu well realizes this, and after thirty years of bleeding, his CPM rank and file in West Bengal too must find it impossible to miss reality. The 1990s have been particularly sobering for West Bengal; despite its best efforts to adapt itself to liberalization and open up to outside investment, it has fallen behind.
Meanwhile, Calcutta’s work force, although it is aging, still retains its old skills; and its wages have fallen far behind wages in the west or the north. It has potential as low-cost producer of things that require its old skills. So why do not Bajorias spring up to use the opportunity? Because it is much easier to invest your money in the stock market than in physical production. The latter is for the young and hungry. But once you’ve made your millions out of jute, life is much easier twisting the tail of Nusli Wadia.